When using an evidence-based methodology, this article measures the proba­ble outcome of the 2016 presidential election. It describes the characteristics of the labor-oriented American voter. Adults who do not acquire the time to search for relevant yet unpopular data points regarding electoral choices put themselves at risk.

Basically, the main focus of this paper problem-solves an environmental question: “How can voters evaluate candidates when political par­ties develop methods to manipulate information in order to persuade voters to affiliate to their particular talking points.” Especially, it means pulling out infor­mation that populations use to judge a candidate’s fitness to hold national of­fice, whether in metropolitan areas as well as in rural zones.

Vocabulary:
Ethnic Communalism – indicates a generalized acceptance of beliefs among a specific ethnic group often with racist and supremacist traits; ie inability to accommodate differing views
Ethnicity – indicates a geographical heritage and/or origin
POAEMA – person(s) of an ethnic majority
POAEMI – person(s) of an ethnic minority
Intra-racial and Extra-racial – indicate persons who choose same race partnerships or have changed their racial identification
Race – indicates a male/female comparison and not a geopolitical one
Racism – indicates whether male or female dominance in economic, social and political domains

Statistical Anticipators
On 8 November 2016, millions of voters will decide between a former elected (Senator) and selected (Secretary of State) Democrat, Hillary R. Clinton, and a notorious businessman/media wise, Donald J. Trump, Republican, for the office of the Presidency of the United States of America.

But who actually will vote? Of the millions of registered voters, knowing about their employment and educational status really matters. This paper analyzes statistics taken from the United States Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In the United States, more than one-hundred and fifty-one million persons engage in compensatory employment. Sustaining an unemployment rate of nearly five percent, for a civilian labor force of nearly one hundred and fifty-nine point five million, can impress even the most skeptical economist, when analyzing the relevance of full employment.

Although sixty-three percent of three hundred and eighty-seven metropolitan areas lowered their unemployment rates, thirty-two percent of the listed metro­politan areas had an increase of unemployed persons.

When viewing early twentieth-century labor statistics, the number of farm and agricultural service workers have steadily declined. Due to seasonal shifts, employment in the agricultural sector had an estimated number of more than one million. In 2012, this group had an unemployment rate of over thirteen percent. The national average, after viewing all occupations, hovered at a little over eight percent.

An exception to these statistics lies in the construction and excavation sector. In 2010, unemployment hit more than twenty percent. In 2014, that number decreased just under six percentage points.

Education does affect employment, determining what and how things get accomplished. The August 2016 economic news report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics gives further evidence regarding a civilian population twenty-five years and older. Median weekly income equaled eight hundred and sixty dollars while unemployment for all workers equaled four point three percent.

1. < HSD: Just above ten million civilians with less than a high school degree had employment. This group listed nearly eight-hundred thousand workers or 7.2 percent unemployed.
   
2. HSD: Less than thirty-four million high school graduates without partici­pating in college, had employment. This group listed nearly two million workers or 5.1  percent unemployed.
   
3. +C/AD: Nearly thirty-six million civilians with some college or an associate degree had employment. This group had slightly more than one million six hundred thousand workers or 4.3 three percent unemployed.
   
4. BD+: Just above fifty-two point six million civilians that attained a bachelor’s degree and higher had employment. This group listed nearly one million five hundred thousand workers or 2.7 percent unemployed.

Accordingly, education matters. Group 4 (BD+) constituted forty percent of the labor force. If using a pyramidal graph, it would illustrate that the least number of unemployed sit within this group. The greater number of unemployed sit within Group 1 (HSD).

A report by the Pew Research Center, “A Deep Dive Into Party Affiliation” gives evidence into specific party affiliation. This work charts the years 1992 thru 2014, illustrating current party affiliation by adults with the Democratic Party (DP) and with the Republican Party (RP).

1. A greater number of persons with a post-graduate experience identify with the DP than with the RP. Women most often choose the DP (64%-29%). While men do likewise, the reduction in the percentage indicates more personal reasons (50%-42%).
2. Persons with a college degree identify with the DP (48%), more than do persons identifying with the RP (43%).
3. Persons who have attained some college experience identify with the DP (47%), slightly more than do persons identifying with the RP (42%).
4. Persons who completed high school, or did not identify with the DP (47%), more than do persons identifying with the RP (37%).

Ethnicity can determine party affiliation in four major groups: European Descent (ED), African Descent (AD), Latino Descent (LD); and Asian Pacific Island Descent (APID). (First Nation/Native American had no grouping.) Ethnically, nearly fifty percent of persons of an ethnic majority (POAEMA) of ED choose the RP, while forty percent choose the DP. Persons of an ethnic minority (POAEMI) more often choose the DP. The scale ranges from a high of eighty percent (DP) to nine percent (RP) for AD; fifty-six percent (DP) to twenty-six percent (RP) for LD; sixty-five percent (DP) to twenty-three percent (RP) for APID.

Generationally, America’s youngest voters, Millennials, remain aligned with the DP, registering above fifty percent. Republicans settle at thirty-five percent. Generation Xers divide more closely than their younger siblings. Forty-nine percent lean toward the DP while thirty-eight percent lean toward the RP. The two older generations, the Baby Boomer and the Silent Generations diverge more evenly. The DP leads forty-seven to forty-one and the RP leads forty-seven to forty-three, respectively.

For most adults, financial security depends on active employment and posi­tive reinforcement of cumulative behavior. Based upon these open factors, the correlation between education and employment ranks high and the linkage be­tween receiving and interpreting information leads to an ability to perform, in­dependent of environmental conditions.

The problem occurs when the conditions under which adult voters, and others, have contact with political practices. Often, the party’s specific platform, adopt­ed during the conventions, effects the attitude of the candidates announce­ments and political broadsides – what they say and do.

During the 2016 presidential election, candidates have tossed about the question of international trade, thus extending the worries that economic security depends on the vagaries of market forces and the threats from globalization.

Trade Mirrors National Stability
We know that the formation of the United States in 1776 began during the start of a new economic era. Industrialization outdistanced mercantilism and pushed the world past old commercial regimes based on bartering and a policy that favored national exports. Globalization replaced this early-modern era by cen­tering gold as a financial construct, advancing mechanical inventions, maintain­ing factories by engineering steam-system process-control schemes, sustaining agricultural refinement, husbanding national markets of goods and services, reorienting a labor force and changing national demographics.

Some of the pressures that affect U.S. labor deal with international competition in the form of regional trade agreements and free trade areas. The United States Trade Representative (USTR) coordinates twenty Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with twenty countries. From that number, twelve countries originate in the Americas.

After World War II, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) estab­lished a structure to monitor notifications of sovereign agreements. Prior to sus­pension in 1994, the GATT listed one-hundred and twenty-four agreements. During the twelve years of Republican control of the executive branch, from 1981 thru 1993, under Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush, eighteen international trade agreements entered into force, a very low number.

In 1985, the Reagan administration concluded the first U.S.-sponsored FTA with Israel. On 17 December 1992, the Bush administration signed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a plurilateral agreement that covered goods as well as financial services. This instrument directs trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

In 1995, international pressure to streamline the GATT initiated the World Trade Organization (WTO). Now, over 400 additional arrangements covering trade in goods or services have been notified and put into force. The WTO reports the existence of more than six hundred and thirty-five Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) notifications and two hundred and sixty-seven agreements in force. This includes negotia­tions in the Asia-Pacific Region for a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement, currently between 12 parties.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an international instrument needed to establish quantifiable measurements and standards in the political economy, carries President Barack Obama’s endorsement. This enterprise covers the activities of specific nations that control as much as forty percent of the global economy.

Diminishing the advantages that NAFTA inadvertently gave other nations, such as subsidies for state-owned enterprises (SOE), TPP favorably builds the marginal efficiency of capital (MEC) into the agreement. Raising environmental and labor standards, a beneficial measure, will affect the bottom line of over­seas manufacturers’ purses. The results will provide a counter-weight, and thus a prospective increase in employment levels and per capita productivity for the U.S., based upon technological innovation.

Although the 2016 Republican Party Platform frames the word “trade” thirty-two times, of which three instances relate to “trade schools”, not once does it stipulate that NAFTA should get terminated. Nor does this platform stipulate any conditions for the passage of the TPP. Trump has said he will revoke any trade agreements, although he has benefited from Chinese steel deals in his construction projects and from his textile manufacturing in Mexico.

The Democratic Party Platform announced “trade” twenty-three times. It does indicate the need for upgrading the standards of the TPP to reflect U.S. en­forcement concerns. Besides aged-secured labor rights and environmental benchmarks, money manipulation, health, medicines and the Internet, all get linked in any future trade agreements.

A Trump administration will blindfold Republican policies and damage interna­tional economic conduct. His bandwagon has promoted clever rhetoric to merge several issues which worry many citizens. (a) the ability to prevent a loss of jobs due to international trade agreements with foreign markets; (b) the violence in war-torn regions of southwest and central Asia; (c) the number of immigrants from Latin America and from locations where the U.S. military had or maintains operations; (d) the disruptions and structural failures in metropolitan areas that often lead to legal challenges between citizens and law enforcement

Trump’s Romanticism
During the later years of the eighteenth century, a diverse group of renowned artists and thinkers expressed their concerns regarding the impact industrializa­tion had inaugurated on the bucolic life of England. Romanticism did originate in Europe during Germany’s Strum und Drang period. Practitioners publicized elegant drives for order and relationships that reflected natural impulses and not the development of science-based controls. The end result of this generalized conditioning produced nationalism.

Trump’s premise regarding strategic markets chooses the tired model of endogenous growth theory. It supports a retrenching nationalism, oriented toward nativistic solidarity. That adventure would prevent real growth as certain patents restricted progress during the early stages of the industrial revolution. It sets aside the values of exogenous growth, which emphasizes trade, as a linkage to domestic economic prosperity.

Trump’s organization rests its attempts for the presidency on reinforcing proba­ble voters with objects that will extinguish “punishments” rendered by “others”. Under his banner, “Make America Great Again”, Trump’s statements, in the Republican campaign, constantly hammer the effects of regional trade, immigration, the war in Syria, job loss and instability of the “inner cities” on America’s standard of living:

“We will build a great wall along the southern border.
And Mexico will pay for the wall. One hundred percent…”.

“I think NAFTA has been a disaster. I think our current
deals are a disaster.”

“… our country and our trade and our deals and most
importantly our jobs are going to hell.”

“ … we have our inner cities, African-Americans, Hispanics,
are living in hell, because it’s so dangerous …”

“Had [President Barack Obama] crossed the line and
really gone in with force, done something to Assad–
if he had gone in with tremendous force, you wouldn’t
have millions of people displaced all over the world.”

The thought that “tool making” can accomplish the removal of unwanted persons fails to form cooperative endeavors with international neighbors. Protective agreements won’t deter other nations from realizing successful trends in sales and technologically based innovation. Productivity and material choices made by population growth, now influenced by specialized, demographic analysis, launched by private or state-sponsored entities, will design and develop future investments.

Also, reliance on “killing the enemy” through ground engagements will only continue to reverse the synthesis of hybrid warfare and influence operations. Trump’s anxious idea of stopping neo-separatist, Salafist-Jihadist in Syria and Iraq, by bombing the oil fields, will disperse reliable partners in their home nations (HNP), reduce alliances and cause potential crises. Furthermore, his “Law and Order!” slogans won’t reanimate unconstitutional safety methodologies or remove settled groups from “inner cities” just to have real estate businesses replace current renters.

Labor, capital, and start-ups that develop from innovative directions, nor investment and asset allocations, can exist in a romanticized world. Today’s political climate processes an acceleration in nationalism based upon an aggregation of factors. Before and during the 2016 campaign, Trump had stirred these interests by overlaying his own dispositions and personality dimensions when promoting these factors: ethnic communalism, fear of foreign-inspired sabotage/terrorism, federal government encroachment on states rights and second amendment rights and a decrease in employment due to foreign labor.

A measurement of registered voters’ concerns, regarding several important issues relating to the 2016 election, based on a Pew poll done in July 2016, combined into four series: (1) International, (2) Economy, (3) Service Sector, and (4) Law and Justice.

1. International – activities include both the government’s foreign policy and trade
   policies, ramifications of immigration and response to terrorism, and climate change.
   
2. Economy – this index provides higher than normal reactions on unemploy­ment and wage formation caused by immigration, and includes the financial sector, the flow of credit to businesses, the digital economy, taxes, banking regulations, com­petitiveness and comparative advantage.
   
3. Service Sector – this index provides normal reactions, except for the Affordable Care Act (Obama Care). Social Security funding, education, and health care remain identifiable social factors in this series.
   
4. Law and Justice – issues include the appointment of a replacement to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court, small arms weapons sales, safety and reporting, re­sponsible advocation of constitutional rights for POAEMI, medical rights for women, and social rights for intra-racial and extra-racial persons.

Both Clinton and Trump voters consider series two, Economy, with high concern, at eighty percent, compared to ninety percent; and, immigration at sixty-five percent and seventy-nine percent, respectively. Series one, International, ranks terrorism at seventy-four percent and eighty-nine percent; and, foreign policy at seventy-three percent and seventy-nine percent, respectively. Series three, Service Sector, ranks health care at seventy-one and seventy-seven percent; and, Social Security at sixty-six percent and sixty-eight percent, respectively. Series four, Law and Justice, ranks small arms weapons sales, safety and reporting at seventy-one and seventy-four percent; and, a Supreme Court replacement at sixty-two and seventy percent, respectively.

Interestingly, Republicans rank climate change at a low thirty-two percent compared to Democrats at sixty-nine percent; and, constitutional rights at forty-two percent and seventy-nine percent respectively. The coldness in the responses of Republican voters to series four factors, except for weapons, indicates a need to preserve or adhere to a specific, habitual act.

The Message Distorts the Reality
Language targets an audience, determines a course of action and validates the “hearer” in the authoritarian dialectic. Trump’s often unintelligible speech and distorted propositions, often void of truth, differs from persons who prize their privateness, cherish the benefits of rules, and strive for perfection, while still running for political office.

By utilizing authoritarian expressions, the Trump bandwagon has pushed those who attend his political stagings into a political camp of historic precedence. They have comparisons to the Know-Nothing Party of the mid-nineteenth century, especially in prohibiting populations with an Islamic religious orientation, “… a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.”

His structural grammar can often confuse the hearer, as he employs, often unconsciously, “Garden Path” sentences. He condones statements that expose a lack of formidable knowledge of base-level issues, a poverty of content, and repetitious incoherence. The hearer has to figure out the intended meaning, allowing the actual or perceived relationship of the speaker-hearer to outweigh the spoken concepts. Such as in a speech given by Trump in Waterbury, Connecticut. Trump stated, “You know what, I’m like a really smart person. Like a lot of you people. Presidential is easy.” 

Mr. Trump places his hearers in a “Forced Choice” conundrum. In this example, the speaker-hearer makes a deal, with the hearer identifying to having something in a union, in concert, with Trump. But, as an authoritarian he also separates from them, since “… a lot of you people.” does not mean everyone. Moreover, in certain situations, critics consider “you people” a pejorative remark, a put-down.

Most of what U.S. citizens of voting age do, or will do later in life, consists of directed learning and conscious knowledge. Other things did consist of acquired learning or experience and subconscious knowledge. In this respect, Trump’s voters have learned specific rules that enable them to accept their role in a repetitious, speaker-hearer relationship. More than that, Trump institutionalizes the “hearers” when using the phrase, “and I am hearing!”

Clinton wins the popular vote in the 2016 Presidential Election
During the Republican campaign, Trump out-lasted sixteen other candidates. For one major reason, the effectiveness of their campaigns, and their reputations prevented them from receiving enough votes to win the nomination. They all lost due to not having a reason for being the president of the United States. One, Rick Perry, had connections to Confederate societal beliefs. Nothing they previously possessed, that is, what they did when in office, reverberated the passions of the voters. None of them could triangulate the “voter needs-office holder-power dispersed” paradigm (V-O-P).

Seven candidates had no national stature, even when just recently leaving office. Recent gaffes and political failures denied them the votes they sought.

• Jim Gilmore – former governor of VA – out of office since 2002
• George Pataki – former governor of NY – out of office since 2006
• Rick Santorum – former senator of PA – out of office since 2007
• Mike Huckabee – former governor of AK – out of office since 2007
• Jeb Bush – former governor of FL – out of office since 2007
• Rick Perry – former governor of TX – out of office since 2015
• Bobby Jindal – former governor of LA – out of office since JAN 2016

Three current governors and four current senators entered their candidacies. None had major accomplishments. Some had agency endeavors that unraveled during an adversarial discourse, which others will still retain as bitter memories; and, others failed, due to a lack of will, to reach out and view a decentralized community, having various needs and expectations.

• Rand Paul – current senator from KY 
• Linsey Graham – current senator from SC
• Ted Cruz – current senator from TX
• Marco Rubio – current senator from FL
• Chris Christie – current governor from NJ
• John Kasich – current governor from OH
• Scott Walker – current governor from WI
• Ben Carson – physician, businessman
• Carly Fiorina – businesswoman

Hillary Clinton has successfully triangulated the “voter needs-office holder-power dispersed” paradigm. The Democratic Party and the millions of supporters recognize the one telling attribute that she possesses – experience, belief in operating the “V-O-P” for positive consequences and efficacy in a responsive, if not responsible, world. Her Democratic challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders, stood firm and reflective throughout his campaign. His disengagement from vitriolic performances has assisted the Democratic party, its voters, and Clinton to challenge the glass-ceiling in an effort to advance women’s rights and open the doors to the White House.

Conclusion
Finally, the 2016 election opens a question of whether an individual strengthens the fabric of democratic institutions or weakens that good. After reviewing several Trump associates’ connections, a prospective voter, whether a Democrat, Independent, Republican, or third party, can discuss the issues and arrive at a judgment. Voters will choose the least abrasive and the most proficient person to represent the United States. Viewing “down ballot” races with a critical eye will also have consequences, due to the failure of the leadership of the Republican Party to safeguard the general public from joining an exhibition of behaviors that have evaded censorship.  

The Republican based call-out of Clinton’s role during the Benghazi Attack in 2012, where four U.S Government men died, illustrates the planning taken by Congressional insiders. They enforced their choice based on the reality that Clinton would run for higher office. Republicans masked their Hegelian, adversarial inspection in order to lower the public trust in Clinton’s decisions.

Actually, the amount of time spent questioning Clinton during the Benghazi Hearings approximated the travel time of Pan Am Flight 103. A regularly scheduled transatlantic carrier from Frankfurt, Germany to Detroit, Michigan, on 21 December 1988, a bomb destroyed the plane in mid-flight over Lockerbie, Scotland. A total two hundred and seventy persons died.

In the number of fatalities included four U.S. Government men. By 1991, Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi tagged two men for prosecution. Ironically, these affairs did not stop Trump from letting Gaddafi erect his bedouin tent on property he owned in Bedford, New York, when, in September 2009, Gaddafi attended the United Nations Assembly.  

In three cases:
1. In fact, Trump has employed Michael Cohen as his special counsel and executive vice-president of the Trump Organization. His previous special counsel, Roy Cohn, Senator Joseph McCarthy’s chief counsel, assisted Trump in getting clearance to build the Trump Towers. Specifying this choice indicates a one criterion symptom of a continued belief that a controlling personality affects Trump’s world. Does the obvious similarity of the names indicate an association linking a concrete attitude?

2. In fact, Trump has directed his thinking toward the press. “I do hate them.’’ “Some of them are such lying, disgusting people. … (They’re) among the most dishonest groups of people I’ve ever met.’’ Then, he changes his statement. “OK, no, I don’t hate anybody. I love the media. They’re wonderful…” Trump’s statement expresses a presence of obvious ambivalence, even while appearing before media. Do the contradictory statements about the media lead to an imbalance in social and/or occupational situations? 

3. In fact, Trump has had other supporters and confidants involved in physiology contest, such as Miss Universe pageants.
I. Roy Cohn, the infamous, proud lawyer:
1. supported Senator Joseph McCarthy’s “red-baiting” era
2. buddied G. David Schine during the McCarthy hearings
3. ushered Donald Trump into the clever, indifferent, monied society of NYC
4. died from complications of HIV after being diagnosed with AIDS in 1984 

II. G. David Schine, a wealthy hotel heir:
1. served as a “legal” consultant to Roy Cohn during Senator Joseph McCarthy’s hearings
2. traveled to Europe to check on published materials held by the USIA
3. married Hillevi Rombin in 1957, a Swedish athlete and physiology competitor. She won the Miss Universe competition on 22 July 1955.
4. killed on June 19, 1996, with his wife Hillevi and oldest son, in a private airplane accident in Burbank, California. 

III. Donald Trump, a wealthy real estate manager and 2016 Republican Party candidate for president:
1. retained Roy Cohn as his legal council
2. bought control and operation of Miss Universe, Inc., in 1996
3. stipulated that Miss Universe selectee had obligations to perform in order to maintain awards
4. nonchalantly, in a manipulative style, criticized former contestant, Alicia Machado. She won the Miss Universe competition on 17 May 1996. 

Hillary Clinton, 2016 Democratic Party candidate for president stated information regarding Ms. Machado during the 26 September 2016 presidential debate.

Before you complete your ballot, remember!
Donald J. Trump stated, at the Republican National Convention on 22 July 2016:
                              “Nobody knows the system better than me,
                                           which is why I alone can fix it.”

Hun Sen, the Cambodian Prime Minister, in office since 1985, on 10 June 2014, warned Cambodians, in a public address, that,
                          “… he is the only person who can control the army.”

1. Center for Immigration Studies. cis.org Accessed Jun-Oct 2016. Provides information relating to fundamental causes and the life changing results of immigration on persons, not only statistics.
2. Chang, Ha-Joon. Edited by John Gershman. “Kicking Away the Ladder: The “Real” History of Free Trade. Foreign Policy In Focus. 30 Dec 2003.
   fpif.org/kicking_away_the_ladder_the_real_history_of_free_trade/  Accessed Sep. – Oct. 2016.
3. Investopedia. www.investopedia.com Accessed Sep. – Oct. 2016. Describes and explains topics relating to economics.
4. On The Issues. www.ontheissues.org/Celeb/Donald_Trump_Free_Trade.htm  Accessed Sep – Oct 2016. A key fact checking organization utilizing candidates statements and citations.
5. Pew Research Center, U.S. Politics. “2016 Campaign: Strong Interest, Widespread Dissatisfaction”. www.pewresearch.org Accessed Jun – Oct 2016. A central source for statistics, charts and information on different topics. Writers approach their subject matter with expertise and clarity.
6. Politifact. www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/ Accessed Jun – Oct 2016. An organization that fact checks the statements of persons in leadership roles, both national and international.
7. Trading Economics. www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/indicators Accessed Oct 2016. This web-based entity has developed access to a thick and relevant statistical news and information service, displaying business oriented data, national and international statistics.
8. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, Leveling the playing field for American workers and businesses. www.medium.com/the-trans-pacific-partnership Accessed Jun – Oct 2016. This website has the complete text of the document.
9. United States Department of Labor, Bureau of  Labor Statistics. www.bls.gov/home.htm Accessed Jun – Oct 2016. A most important, central source for business and labor statistics, charts and information and relevant topics on the economy.
10. World Trade Organization. www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/trade_monitoring_e.htm Accessed Jun – Oct 2016. The organization’s digital hub offers a substantial number of documents, statistics, charts mandatory for any purposeful study of political economics.

by
R. Alexander Ph.D.